新風險監管規定對於中國證券行業的影響及未來發展趨勢思考
資本與市場
作者：Andy Chen
On Feb 25th， SAC published ‘Comprehensive Risk Management Practice of Securities Companies’ and ‘Liquidity Risk Management Guideline of Securities Companies’ guidelines. Securities firms have to meet the strict requirement of comprehensive risk management practice and liquidity risk management of very high standard. Also， the new regulations set LCR and NSFR at the 100% target and tough deadline for securities firms to become compliant. To meet the requirement， securities firms need to learn from other global leading securities firms to improve their risk management capability and this will have significant impact to the Chinese securities industry.
Ⅰ.Regulations and business model
The two risk guidelines published by SAC are similar to those published by the CBRC. Since the CBRC applied the BASEL III framework in their banking rules， we often see similar Basel rules applied to the securities firms， especially the computation methods of the two ratios. However， BASEL III is designed mainly for the mature banking markets and not for the Chinese securities market， this may not be appropriate for the Chinese securities firms’ and bring negative impact in two different ways.
Firstly， securities companies in China have much lower net income， limited scale and smaller amount of capital and asset base than banks. According to the statistics by SAC， there are 115 securities companies in China with 2100 billion of total asset and 159.2 billion of total income in 2013. But the average ROE of securities industry is only 7.6%. The strict guidelines will require heavy investment improving risk management capability to international standard. Smaller securities firms will not be able to compete and we may see that liquidity rules triggering consolidation in the market.
Secondly， due to the differences of the financial structure between China and other countries， for example if we look at chart 1 below - American securities companies own 18% of the total asset in the US while the ratio is only 1% in China. Chinese securities companies are relatively too small to implement the same high standards as bank.
Moreover， we need to understand that liquidity of the banking system is based on the size of market capacity， that’s why CBRC allows banks to meet LCR of 100% only by 2018. By comparison， the securities companies lack scale in capacity and funding sources， but they have to achieve the goal earlier by 2015. This may not pose immediate problem since leverage is low， however this may hinder growth in other area. Nowadays， short term funding channel is controlled by bank and can easily cause liquidity to dry up in the end of month or season. The NSFR ratio requires longer term funding and limit cash exposure due to inflation. So we predict that the new regulations will foster change in the business mix of the securities company. They will look to expand in asset management or intermediary business in order to meet the regulatory requirements.