研究我們過去對於公司和普通股的投資時,你會看到我們偏愛那些不太可能發生重大變化的公司和產業。原因很簡單:在進行兩者中的任何一種投資時,我們尋找那些我們相信在從現在開始的10年或20年的時間裏擁有巨大競爭力的企業。至於那些迅速轉變產業環境的企業,它可能會提供巨大的成功機會,但是它排除了我們尋找的可能性。
——巴菲特
市場不能保證一直有效,在一個相對短的時間內市場往往不能夠準確反映公司的內在價值。
——巴菲特
5.買下正確的公司,
用不著考慮它目前的價格
In the past eleven years, I have been long—term beyond the Dow Jones index of 10% as our goal, I also said that although the completion of this goal is difficult, but not impossible. Following some of our business and market changes occurred in these years:
1. the market compared to the past has been a significant change: the significant price advantage of investment targets have been greatly reduced in number;
2. for the attention of the investment performance led to the overreaction of the market behavior, and my analytical skills can only assess a limited range of values;
3. our capital base has reached 65 million U.S. dollars and are reducing our investment ideas;
4. before we have achieved a good performance, for me personally, to continue efforts to achieve superior performance power will inevitably be reduced.
Let us come closer analysis of these points.
For the valuation of securities or companies always found to be involved in all aspects of the qualitative and quantitative factors. From an extreme perspective, qualitative analysis method: "Buy the right company, do not consider it the price!" Quantitative methods will be said: "The right price to buy, do not need to consider the company"s actual analysis." It is clear both factors should be taken into account.
——摘自2010年巴菲特寫給全體股東的年報
譯文
在過去的11年裏,我一直將長期超越道瓊斯指數的10%作為我們奮鬥的目標,盡管我曾經說過完成這個目標是困難的,但也不是不可能的。以下是在這些年裏我們的業務和市場所發生的變化:
1.和以往相比,市場明顯發生了重大變化:在價格方麵具有優勢的投資目標已經明顯減少;
2.投資者對於投資業績的關注度過高致使市場行為出現了較為過激的反應,而我的分析技巧也隻能僅僅評估出一個有限的價值區間;
3.雖然我們的資金基數已經達到65000000美元,但我們投資的點子卻在不斷地減少;
4.之前由於我們已經取得了令人振奮的業績,對我個人來說,繼續努力去贏取良好業績的動力就會有所減少。
下麵我們接著仔細分析上述幾點。
對於證券與公司的估值總是不可避免地會涉及到定性及定量等方麵的因素。從一個極端的角度來說,定性分析的方法會說:“買下正確的公司,用不著考慮它目前的價格!”而定量方法會說:“用正確的價格購買入,不用考慮公司的情況。”很顯然,這兩個因素在實際分析的時候都應該考慮在內。